Methodology
Q1 2024
* Embedded auto insurance market opportunity data from Q2 2022 through Q1 2024, defined as new policies per car buyer engaged in an insurance conversation at the dealership, weighted by consumer mix and insurance carrier risk appetite
** 934,422 transactions for the period 2021-03-01 to 2024-02-29 (36 calendar months). 13.5K transactions that pertained to VINs for which there are multiple resales (two in the same month, or 3 or more in this 3-year period) were removed. 10K transactions on 855 ‘frequent buyers’ (with 5 or more buys in the 3-year period) were removed. Finally, 75 dealerships with less than 1,000 transactions in 2022 were removed, leaving 740K transactions of vehicles sold to customers in dealerships that have a substantial sales volume in a substantial part of the 3-year period. Substantial sales volume was defined as dealerships that had at least 5000 sales and at least 200 insurance quotes. Finally, these transactions data are linked to our own quote and sales data, by the VIN, name, e-mail, and date of transaction.
*** *Analysis of the back gross across 384,121 sales for 19 dealer groups across 178 rooftops. The Q1 (25th percentile), Median (50th percentile), and Q3 (75th percentile) are all higher for sales with insurance engagement compared to all sales. Further analysis suggests that insurance engagement is associated with a 20% higher back gross. In fact, a Mann-Whitney U test, a non-parametric test used to compare the distributions of two independent groups, performed on 461,568 transactions coming from the dealerships with significant engagement with Polly in both prior years confirmed that this difference is statistically significant (p < 0.01) at that level.
In addition, all 19 dealership groups analyzed have a median back gross for sales with insurance engagement that is higher than that for all sales, and 14 demonstrated a statistically significant association between insurance engagement and a 20% higher back gross. This represents approximately 74% of the dealership groups studied.
Q2 2024
* Embedded auto insurance market opportunity data from Q2 2023 through Q2 2024, defined as new policies per car buyer engaged in an insurance conversation at the dealership, weighted by consumer mix and insurance carrier risk appetite
** The report is based on analysis of 993,784 vehicle sale transactions dated between 2021-06-01 and 2024-05-31, identified by a valid unique VIN number.
This includes 397,832 transactions in the latest 12 month and 402,432 in the prior 12 months.
The sales transactions are reported by 149 dealership groups at more than 500 rooftops, with some dealerships reporting at the group level and some at the location level.
A dealership group is designated as ‘highly engaged’ over a period of time if it has reported 1,000 transactions over that period and has both one, auto insurance quotes with Polly embedded technology associated with at least 2% of the reported transactions and two, at least 50 transactions with Auto insurance quotes with Polly embedded technology associated to these.
Q3 2024
1 Assessment based on 424,857 insurance quotes over the past 9 quarters from 9 insurance carriers for car buyers in all 50 states.
2 Embedded auto insurance market growth data from Q3 2022 through Q2 2024, defined as new policies per connected customer weighted by automotive retail sales volume and carrier openness to new business.
3 Data notes 2024Q3: Trends in front gross and back gross are based on analyses of 1,071,892 vehicle sale transactions dated between 2021-09-01 and 2024-08-31, identified by a valid unique VIN number. The sales transactions are sourced from 145 dealership groups with more than 500 rooftops, reporting a total of 30,000 sales per month. As the dealership level variation is a main source of heterogeneity in the data, the data have been imputed using ARIMA models to account for some dealerships not reporting in some months. The sales are nationally representative with 90% coming from 23 geographically diverse states with more than 10,000 sales each. The sales are of a wide variety of brands, with the 17 brands representing 80% of the sales, and the top 10 brands accounting for only 2/3rds of the sales.
4 Includes only Dealerships High-Polly-Engagement dealerships (at least 50 quotes and quoting at least 2% of transactions) over the past 12 months
Q4 2024
The dataset comprises of 1,151,916 vehicle sales transactions, identified by VIN and transaction date. The transactions cover the period between January 2022 and December 2024, with an average 32 thousand transactions per month.
The sales transactions are as reported by 147 distinct dealership groups that have between 1 and 42 stores, with the median group reporting 3,427 transactions over the three-year period. As the dealership level variation is a main source of heterogeneity in the data, the data has been imputed using ARIMA models to create an additional synthetic 50,000 transactions to account for some dealerships not reporting in some months.
The data comes from the Authenticom feed for the dealership groups, with the exception of a large dealership group in the Northeast that has provided a separate file with sales data.
The dataset covers at least 10,000 transactions for 24 distinct vehicle brands, with the top five –Ford, Toyota, Honda, KIA and Chevrolet – accounting for 42% of all sales.
The sales are nationally representative with 90% coming from 23 geographically diverse states with more than 10,000 sales ea
Q1 2025
The dataset comprises of 1,161,264 vehicle sales transactions, identified by unique combination of VIN and transaction date. The transactions cover the period from APR-2022 to MAR-2025, with an average 32 thousand transactions per month.
The sales transactions are as reported by 147 distinct dealership groups with between 1 and 42 stores, with the median group reporting 3,502 transactions over the 3 years period. As the dealership level variation is a main source of heterogeneity in the data, the data have been imputed using ARIMA models to create an additional synthetic 50,000 transactions to account for some dealerships not reporting in some months.
The data comes from the Authenticom feed for the dealership groups, with the exception of a large dealership group in the Northeast that has provided a separate file with sales data.
The dataset covers at least 10,000 transactions for 24 distinct vehicle brands, with the top 5 of FORD, TOYOTA, HONDA, KIA and CHEVROLET covering 42% of all sales.
The sales are nationally representative with 90% coming from 23 geographically diverse states with more than 10,000 sales each.
Top 10 Dealership Groups by Sales Volume includes only High-Polly-Engagement dealerships (at least 50 quotes and quoting at least 2% of transactions) over the past 12 months.
Hard-to-Insure represents the share of car buyers who requested a quote from Polly, and either did not find a single carrier to insure them, or all quotes received where for $800 a month or higher.
Q2 2025
The dataset comprises of 1,275,192 vehicle retail sales transactions covering the period from January’22 to June’25, with an average 30 thousand transactions per month.
The sales transactions are as reported by 147 distinct dealership groups with between 1 and 42 stores, with the median group reporting more than 3,500 transactions over the 3 years period. As the dealership level variation is a main source of heterogeneity in the data, the data have been imputed using ARIMA models to create an additional synthetic 50,000 transactions to account for some dealerships not reporting in some months.
The data comes from the Authenticom feed for the dealership groups, with the exception of a large dealership group in the Northeast that has provided a separate file with sales data.
The dataset covers at least 10,000 transactions for each of 24 distinct vehicle brands, with the top 5 of FORD, TOYOTA, HONDA, KIA and CHEVROLET covering 42% of all sales.
The sales are nationally representative with 90% coming from 23 geographically diverse states with more than 10,000 sales each.
Top 10 Dealership are selected each quarter among the High-Polly-Engagement dealerships, meaning at least 50 quotes and quoting at least 2% of car buyers each month.
Hard-to-Insure represents the share of car buyers who requested a quote from Polly, and either did not find a single carrier to insure them, or all quotes received where for $800 a month or higher.
Q3 2025
Embedded auto insurance market opportunity data from Q1 2024 through Q3 2025, defined as new policies per car buyer engaged in an insurance conversation at the dealership, weighted by consumer mix and insurance carrier risk appetite.
The dataset comprises of 1,285,740 vehicle retail sales transactions covering the period from January’22 to September’25, with an average 30 thousand transactions per month.
The sales transactions are as reported by 147 distinct dealership groups with between 1 and 42 stores, with the median group reporting more than 3,500 transactions over the 3 years period. As the dealership level variation is a main source of heterogeneity in the data, the data have been imputed using ARIMA models to create an additional synthetic 50,000 transactions to account for some dealerships not reporting in some months.
The data comes from the Authenticom feed for the dealership groups, except for a large dealership group in the Northeast that has provided a separate file with sales data.
The dataset covers at least 10,000 transactions for each of 24 distinct vehicle brands, with the top 5 of FORD, TOYOTA, HONDA, KIA and CHEVROLET covering 42% of all sales.
The sales are nationally representative with 90% coming from 23 geographically diverse states with more than 10,000 sales each.
Top 10 Dealership are selected each quarter among the high-Polly-engagement dealerships, meaning at least 50 quotes and quoting at least 2% of car buyers each month.
Hard-to-Insure represents the share of car buyers who requested a quote from Polly, and either did not find a single carrier to insure them, or all quotes received where for $800 a month or higher.
